ICAO prepared economic impact analysis of COVID-19 on civil aviation
scheduled passenger traffic for the full year 2020, compared to Baseline
(business as usual, originally-planned), would be:
- Overall reduction ranging from 43% to 51% of seats offered by airlines
- Overall reduction of 2,423 to 2,907 million passengers
- Approx. USD 323 to 385 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines
International passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline
- Overall reduction ranging from 55% to 65% of seats offered by airlines
- Overall reduction of 1,214 to 1,422 million passengers
- Approx. USD 216 to 253 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
- Air passenger traffic: An overall reduction of air passengers (both international and domestic)
ranging from 50% to 60% in 2020 compared to 2019 (by ICAO)
- Airports: An estimated loss of over 50% of passenger traffic and 57% or over USD 97 billion
airport revenues in 2020 compared to business as usual (by ACI)
- Airlines: A 54.7% decline of revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs, both international and
domestic) in 2020 compared to 2019 (by IATA)
- Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 910 to 1,170 billion in 2020, compared to the USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019, with 100% of worldwide destinations having
travel restrictions (by UNWTO)
- Trade: A fall of global merchandise trade volume by between 13% and 32% in 2020 compared
to 2019 (by WTO)
- Global economy: A projected -4.9% to -5.2% contraction in world GDP in 2020, far worse than
during the 2008–09 financial crisis (by IMF and World Bank)
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