Eurocontrol: European Air Traffic Will Not Recover Until 2025

European air traffic recovery will not happen until 2025, according to the recent report provided by the European air traffic management body Eurocontrol.

The same has stressed that the aviation recovery will not return to pre-pandemic levels at least until 2025, reports.

According to Eurocontrol’s latest report published in June said that a full recovery would not happen until 2024.

“We’ve seen strong demand this summer, but this has been held back both by the capacity of the sector to handle rapid growth and by the impact of the war in Ukraine,” Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn Brennan pointed out in this regard.

He stressed that 49% more flights are expected this year compared to last year; however still, 16% fewer compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

“We’re optimistic about traffic recovering to around 92% of 2019 levels next year. But there are significant downside risks that could affect the recovery,” Eamonn Brennan pointed out in this regard.

According to Eurocontrol, there are three scenarios regarding the aviation situation:

The first one shows recovery to pre-pandemic levels in the next year, while the most pessimistic one shows recovery after 2028.

All these scenarios have been introduced, taking into account several factors, including increasing energy prices as well as the staff shortages noted this summer which might occur again next year.

All three also take into account the “full restoration” of long-haul traffic flows in the next year as well as “very limited travel restrictions” due to the situation caused by the spread of the Coronavirus and its new variants.

Based on the recent report of Eurocontrol, air traffic up to this point reached a total of 82% of pre-pandemic levels by October, while it was at 87% early in the months. Still, the figures continue to remain below the June forecast of 90% by September-October and a total of 92% by December.

Eurocontrol forecasts that traffic in the next year will reach 92% of the pre-pandemic levels, increasing to a total of 98% in 2024.

“Uncertainty remains very high, with risks skewed to the downside,” Eurocontrol warned.

The same notes that the fuel prices have surged by 47% since the beginning of this year while air fares were up by 15% on the 2019 levels in July while stressing: “It is uncertain how airlines will be able to pass on the fuel price spikes to travellers.”